Ivan Kopytsev, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre North African and African Horn studies, on the prospects for escalation between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

The Ethiopian-Eritrean border remains a place of considerable tension. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are not simply stagnant: today, we cannot rule out the possibility of armed conflict.

Both countries are active participants in the political process in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea is a militarised state with a specific political regime. It actively ‘participates in the affairs’ of its neighbours, including Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan. Ethiopia, in turn, has enormous economic, demographic and military potential, and many of its neighbours perceive Ethiopia as a threat. This observation is particularly relevant for Eritrea, which essentially separates Ethiopia from direct access to the sea.

External players may benefit from a possible escalation, including Egypt. Eritrea has a tacit alliance with Somalia and Egypt, which seeks to prevent Ethiopia from gaining access to the sea. It is difficult to predict which way the scales will tip in the event of direct conflict. The cornerstone will be the issue of Tigray, a region in northern Ethiopia that is formally subordinate to the Ethiopian government. But it has its own interest groups and armed forces (the Tigray Defence Forces). In recent months, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has become extremely close to the Eritreans. Thus, in the event of a direct confrontation, its forces may be involved in the conflict.

If the Ethiopian army is successful in the border area, Eritrea will be completely defenceless: it is virtually impossible to defend the small plain on the coast. Ethiopia may have some advantages in the course of hostilities. But we must not forget that Eritrea has universal conscription and the country has considerable potential for warfare.

Russia may try to act as a mediator in the conflict, although in Africa it is now customary to rely on African mediation. Eritrea is a country that supports Moscow in the UN. On the other hand, the Eritrean authorities are not always willing to negotiate. Russia has considered the option of establishing a military base in Eritrea, but so far no agreement has been reached.

Ethiopia, in turn, is a partner that may be less straightforward in its support for Russia, but there are incomparably greater economic prospects here. Ethiopia recently became a member of BRICS, and Russia and Ethiopia have traditionally enjoyed good relations for many years. For Russia, military conflict in this region is a negative scenario because it could affect our interests, forcing us to make difficult choices.

This article was originally published on the Russian Newspaper website:
https://rg.ru/2025/10/08/ekspert-instituta-afriki-ran-ocenil-veroiatnost...